| Quarter 1, Year 1 | Hold |
| Quarters 2-4, Year 1 | Follow any down |
| Year 2 | Be average |
| Year 3 | Be average |
| Competitive intelligence | Don't buy |
It’s not enough to see whether results got better or worse — a declining industry can fall no matter what you do. ADAM (the Act / Don’t Act Matrix™) compares your results to what would have happened if you’d done nothing, while accounting for competitors.
The act / don’t-act numbers come from a separate “do nothing” engine run (not in this scores file) — this panel fills in once that run is available.
Across every future you faced, how often your strategy landed in each outcome band. A tight cluster is robust; a wide spread is risky.
Every strategy’s average profit and share. Anything up-and-to-the-right of your red marker beat you on both. The triangle is the “do nothing” baseline.
The Top Pricer Tournament is not a test — it’s a mirror. Everyone who entered thought their strategy was a good one; that performance varies so widely is the lesson. What did you assume about your competitors? What would have to happen for your strategy to work as you planned?